Hope for the Best, Prepare for the Threat, Find the Opportunity: Navigating AI in Content Creation

A couple of months ago, I had a conversation with an acclaimed AI scientist that left me both intrigued and unsettled. This industry veteran shared a provocative and certain perspective on AI's future. His view? In just three years, we'll be able to create entire movies from instantly generated scripts with minimal to no human involvement in the creative process.

"Stop what you're doing. Human creativity is over," he said. "AI won." (Though I didn’t have a mirror, I can only hope face stayed professional and my eyes said Go Fuck Yourself)

He painted a future where content will be completely personalized and served to us on demand. Want a thriller set in the Middle East starring Brad Pitt? Just type it into your Netflix app, and voila – a custom-made movie appears, tailored precisely to your preferences.

While I don't doubt the potential power of AI technology to reach this level, I find myself skeptical of any prediction that claims to know with certainty how human behavior and cultural shifts will unfold. The commerce and culture that will grow around AI are far from predetermined, and it's this very uncertainty that drives me to act now.

In this newsletter, we'll explore the tension between AI's undeniable potential and the unpredictable nature of human behavior and cultural evolution. We'll examine why it's critical to hope for the best while preparing for potential threats, and how this approach can help us navigate the rapidly changing landscape of AI in creative industries.

"AI Can't Do What I Do"

The conversation with the AI scientist encapsulates a fundamental tension we're grappling with in the creative industries: the immense potential of AI technology versus the unpredictable and often irrational nature of human behavior and cultural trends.

While the AI scientist's view represents one extreme, I've encountered an equally problematic perspective on the other end of the spectrum. Many creatives I've spoken with dismiss AI entirely, confidently asserting that "AI could never do what I do."

This thinking, while understandable, is flawed. It often underestimates the rapid pace of AI advancement, with capabilities that seem impossible today potentially becoming commonplace in just a few years. It focuses too narrowly on replicating exact processes rather than achieving similar or even superior outcomes. Furthermore, it fails to consider how AI might augment and enhance human creativity rather than replace it entirely. Perhaps most dangerously, it can lead to complacency, preventing us from preparing for significant industry changes.

As artists, we draw inspiration from countless sources and synthesize them into our unique forms of expression. While it's true that AI cannot perfectly mimic our individual creative processes, that's not really the point. The question we should be asking is not whether AI can replicate our exact methods, but whether it can produce results that audiences find valuable, engaging, or even preferable. Because ultimately, art and expression intersect with business and commerce. It's about finding an audience, capturing attention, and creating value. We shouldn't assume audiences will vet the production process for everything they watch as long as it captures their attention and imagination.

Consider the vast troves of data that AI models are trained on – the entire history of human creativity, centuries of music, a hundred years of film and TV, all the books ever written. When we train AI on this collective heritage of human creativity, isn't it possible that we may be able to create using these tools in ways that go beyond what any individual human could achieve? And if that's possible, what are the implications of ignoring vs engaging with technology that has that capability?

This is not to say that AI will make human creativity obsolete. Far from it. But it does suggest that the relationship between human creators and AI tools is likely to be more complex and nuanced than many currently assume. The flaw in the "AI can't do what I do" thinking is that it focuses too narrowly on the process rather than the outcome. It ignores the possibility that AI might be able to create something different – but equally valuable or even more appealing to certain audiences.

"But What If We're Wrong?"

One of the most valuable questions we can ask ourselves when navigating the uncertain waters of AI's impact on creative industries is: "But what if we're wrong?"

This simple query is a powerful tool for developing a more nuanced and adaptable approach to AI in our industries – as long as it's associated with action and not an excuse for complacency. The question forces us to confront our biases, challenge our assumptions, and prepare for multiple possible futures.

If we believe AI won't significantly impact our creative field, we should ask ourselves: What if we're wrong? What opportunities might we miss? What risks are we not preparing for? How might our careers or businesses be affected if AI advances more quickly or becomes more capable than we anticipated?

Conversely, if we're certain AI will completely take over, we should again ask: What if we're wrong? Are we potentially abandoning valuable skills or overlooking ways to collaborate with AI rather than be replaced by it? Might we be missing opportunities to create unique value by combining human creativity with AI capabilities?

This exercise isn't about paralysis through analysis or constant second-guessing. Rather, it's about maintaining a flexible mindset that allows us to adapt quickly as the landscape shifts. It's about orienting towards action and being prepared for multiple scenarios rather than betting everything on a single prediction.

The Relentless March of AI Progress

One of the most crucial points we must internalize is this: Right now, today, is the worst AI will ever perform. The tools available to us right now are as limited as they will ever be. This statement was true a year ago, and it will be true a year from now.

The pace of progress in AI is breathtaking. From last year to this year, we've seen dramatic improvements in AI capabilities. Text-to-image generation has become remarkably sophisticated, producing images that are increasingly indistinguishable from human-created art. Language models have become more nuanced and capable, able to engage in complex conversations and generate human-like text across a wide range of styles and topics. AI-driven video editing and creation tools have made significant strides, allowing for the manipulation and generation of video content in ways that were once the domain of skilled professionals with expensive equipment.

Given this rapid pace of progress, we must ask ourselves: Is it more productive to assume today's limitations will protect our careers, or to prepare for continued dramatic advancements?

I argue strongly for the latter. Preparing for disruption – even if it doesn't come in exactly the form we expect – puts us in a much stronger position than assuming the status quo will be maintained. It allows us to be proactive rather than reactive, to shape the future rather than be blindsided by it.

The Peril of Dismissing AI's Potential

On the surface, dismissing AI might offer some short-term comfort. It allows us to focus on our current work without the distraction of a looming technological threat. It maintains confidence in our skills and value. It provides a sense of continuity and stability in a rapidly changing world.

But these comforts come at a steep price. By dismissing AI's potential, we're leaving ourselves woefully unprepared for significant industry changes that are already underway. We're missing opportunities to leverage AI tools for creative enhancement, potentially allowing more adaptable competitors to surge ahead. We risk the obsolescence of our skills or methods, unable to adapt to new market demands or audience preferences.

Perhaps most critically, this dismissive attitude robs us of the chance to be at the forefront of defining how AI will be used in our fields. Instead of shaping the future, we're resigning ourselves to merely reacting to it – often when it's already too late.

When we weigh these factors, it becomes clear that the downside of dismissing AI's potential far outweighs any short-term comfort it might provide. The risk of being left behind in a rapidly evolving industry is simply too great.

The Creative Industry's History of Technological Integration

The current discourse around AI in creative fields often overlooks a crucial point: the creative industry has a long history of integrating disruptive technologies. Innovations that initially seemed threatening to traditional creative processes have repeatedly become integral tools, expanding the boundaries of art, connection, and expression.

The music industry provides a clear example of this pattern. When synthesizers first appeared, many predicted the obsolescence of traditional musicians. Instead, synthesizers became a new instrument, spawning genres like electronic music and synthpop. Digital audio workstations like Pro Tools similarly transformed music production, democratizing high-quality recording.

Film and television have consistently adopted cutting-edge technologies. Computer-generated imagery (CGI), once viewed as a threat to traditional special effects artists, is now indispensable in filmmaking. The transition from film to digital cameras, despite initial resistance from many cinematographers, has become the norm.

In visual art, photography was once feared as a threat to painting. It instead became a distinct art form while also influencing painters' approaches. More recently, digital art tools faced dismissal as "not real art." Now, digital art is a respected medium, with some pieces commanding millions at auction.

This historical pattern reveals a consistent trajectory: initial resistance gives way to experimentation, leading to integration of new technology into existing workflows. This integration enhances human creativity rather than replacing it, often resulting in entirely new forms of artistic expression. Importantly, these technological shifts often democratize creative tools, making them accessible to a wider range of people.

The current developments in AI-driven creative tools follow this familiar pattern. While the pace and scale of AI-driven change may be unprecedented, the fundamental process of integrating new technology into creative workflows is not. Many current AI tools can be viewed as extensions of this ongoing technological evolution in creative fields.

The key distinction, and the source of both excitement and concern, lies in AI's potential to participate in the ideation process itself, not just assist in executing creative ideas. This marks a new frontier in the collaboration between humans and technology in creative fields.

The Lazlo Model: Embracing AI as a Creative Catalyst

In considering how to navigate this landscape of threats and opportunities, I find myself returning often to the story of Lazlo Gaal, the Hungarian colorist who used AI to create an unofficial Volvo commercial in just 24 hours using Runway. This example embodies the potential for creative professionals to leverage AI in ways that enhance rather than diminish their unique talents.

Lazlo's approach is instructive in several ways. First, rather than fearing or dismissing AI, he actively engaged with it, exploring its capabilities and limitations firsthand. This hands-on experimentation allowed him to understand how AI could augment his existing skills rather than replace them.

Crucially, Lazlo didn't just rely on AI – he combined the AI's capabilities with his own deep understanding of color, composition, and storytelling. The result wasn't a replacement of human creativity, but a powerful synthesis of human and machine capabilities.

By using AI, Lazlo was able to create something he couldn't have done alone, at least not in the same timeframe. This expanded what was creatively possible for him, opening up new avenues for expression and, potentially, new business opportunities.

The efficiency and speed enabled by AI allowed Lazlo to dramatically reduce production time. In a world where turnaround times are constantly shrinking, this kind of efficiency could be the difference between winning or losing a project.

Perhaps most importantly, Lazlo's willingness to adapt his workflow and innovate with new tools positioned him at the forefront of his field. While others might have been dismissing AI or waiting to see how it developed, Lazlo was actively shaping how it could be used in his industry.

The Lazlo model shows us that the most significant opportunities lie not in resisting AI, but in finding innovative ways to integrate it into our creative processes. It's about using AI to enhance and amplify human creativity, not replace it.

This approach – of active engagement, experimentation, and integration – is what I believe will separate the creative professionals who thrive in the AI era from those who struggle to adapt. It's not about becoming an AI expert overnight, but about gradually building our understanding and capabilities, always with an eye towards how these tools can serve our unique creative vision.

The Imperative for Creative Leadership

As we confront the realities of AI in our industries, we have a unique opportunity – and indeed, a responsibility – to be at the forefront of shaping how this technology is used. There's no value in lamenting the changes that are coming. Instead, we must seize the opportunity to own this technology and continue to be the leaders of expression and creative innovation.

We, as creative professionals, bring to the table a deep understanding of storytelling, emotional resonance, and cultural nuance that is crucial for ensuring AI-augmented content creation enriches our cultural landscape rather than flattens it. This expertise is invaluable in guiding the development of AI tools to better serve the needs of both creators and audiences.

By actively engaging with AI technologies, we can guide development, set ethical standards, create new forms of expression, preserve human value, and bridge technology and art. The alternative – staying on the sidelines – means ceding control of our creative future to others who may not share our values or understand the nuances of creative work.

Balancing Hope and Preparation

The title of this newsletter, "Hope for the Best, Prepare for the Threat, Find the Opportunity," encapsulates what I believe should be our approach to AI in the creative industries. It's a delicate balance, but one that is crucial for navigating the uncertain waters ahead.

Hoping for the best means remaining open to the incredible possibilities that AI presents. It means envisioning a future where AI tools enhance our creative capabilities, open up new forms of expression, and allow us to reach audiences in ways we never thought possible.

But preparing for the threat is equally important. It means taking a clear-eyed view of the potential disruptions AI could bring to our industries. It means considering how our roles might need to evolve, what new skills we might need to develop, and how we can position ourselves to remain relevant and valuable in an AI-augmented landscape.

Finding the opportunity in AI's integration into creative fields requires a proactive and innovative mindset. For smaller teams, AI can democratize access to capabilities once limited by budget or resources. For established studios and agencies, AI offers the potential to push creative boundaries even further. Large productions can leverage AI to streamline workflows, allowing for more iterations and potentially higher quality output.

This approach allows us to be both optimistic and pragmatic. It encourages us to explore and experiment with AI, while also building resilience and adaptability into our careers and businesses.

AI is not something that's happening to us – it's something we have the power to shape. As a creative community, we are uniquely positioned to guide the integration of AI into our industries in ways that amplify human creativity rather than diminish it. Yes, the challenges are significant, and the potential for disruption is real. But so too are the opportunities for innovation, creative expansion, and the development of entirely new forms of expression.