Beyond Brad Pitt: Navigating the AI-Driven Future of Entertainment

"Everyone will always want Brad Pitt."

These words, confidently stated by a top executive at one of Hollywood's powerhouse talent agencies, have been rattling around in my brain for months. They were the culmination of a fascinating conversation I had about AI's potential impact on the entertainment industry during a recent visit to Los Angeles.

I found myself in their office, discussing how AI might reshape content creation. The agency leadership was impressively forward-thinking about AI in many ways, but we hit a snag when it came to the potential disruption of their core business model.

I have enormous respect for these people and organizations. They're not just gatekeepers; they're the architects of careers, the shapers of cultural moments. Their job isn't simply to get their clients more work. It's a holistic approach to the short, medium, and long arc of careers. They're wary of oversaturating the market with their clients' presence, and for good reason. In the world of entertainment, scarcity often equals value.

But AI has the potential to upend this carefully balanced system. It's likely to make content creation easier, faster, and cheaper, which will likely lead to an explosion in the volume of content available, potentially diminishing the value of any individual piece of content. If there's more content competing for a finite amount of audience attention, each piece of content becomes less valuable because it will likely be viewed less. This isn't just theory - it's a trend we've been seeing for years with the proliferation of streaming services and social media platforms.

The implications of this shift are profound, not just for content creators but for the entire talent ecosystem. If the value of content decreases, it will likely drive down per-project budgets, which in turn will reduce the amount of money available for talent. And if talent can't drive as much attention as they once did, their overall value in the marketplace diminishes, which we’ve seen since the early 2010s.

The Changing Landscape of Audience Engagement

To truly understand the challenge we're facing, we need to look at how audience engagement has changed over the past decade or so. The value of talent has always been fundamentally driven by the time and attention audiences spend with them. In the past, this was relatively straightforward to achieve and measure.

Remember the era of "appointment television," when shows like Seinfeld or Friends could command the attention of tens of millions of viewers simultaneously? Recall the musical monoculture of the 80s and 90s, when artists like Madonna or Michael Jackson became household names through radio, MTV, and singular events it felt like everyone was watching at once? These were moments of shared cultural experience, where talent could quickly build deep connections with vast audiences.

When everyone was watching Brad Pitt in "Fight Club" or "Snatch" around the same time, it created a powerful, shared connection between the actor and a massive audience. Each appearance reinforced and deepened that connection, building the star power that agents could then leverage to demand higher fees and more prestigious roles.

But this landscape has been changing dramatically. There is no MTV. There are far fewer shared cultural moments. The proliferation of content platforms, from streaming services to social media, has fractured our attention. We're no longer all watching the same shows or listening to the same music at the same time. Instead, our content consumption has become increasingly personalized and niche.

When I reflect on the gradual decline of talent value over the last decade or so, it's closely tied to this fractionalization of attention. The ubiquity of social media has played a significant role in this shift. While social media can help talent connect directly with fans, it has also taken away the ubiquity of our cultural moments.

In the past, if everyone was watching the same movie at the same time or listening to the same song on the radio, the audience was building a connection with that piece of talent en masse. Now, our personalized algorithms mean that your cultural consumption is likely quite different from your neighbor's.

This shift has profound implications for how talent builds and maintains its value. In today's fractured media landscape, it's become increasingly difficult for new talent to achieve that level of ubiquity. Even established stars find it challenging to maintain the same depth of connection with audiences that was once possible.

Here's a thought experiment: when you think about the huge artists that have driven culture and changed the game in terms of celebrity over the last decade, how many names come to mind? You might say Taylor Swift, but she broke through before social media was as established as it is now. You might mention Zendaya or Billie Eilish, but when you look at the numbers they do on tour or the box office draw of movie stars today, you'll see that a single star is not capable of driving the interest and economics of a whole movie or tour in the way they could several years ago.

This doesn't mean there's any less talent out there. It just means that attention has been divided. And this was happening even before AI entered the picture. AI has the potential to pour gasoline on this already existing dynamic.

The Economic Realities of a Fractured Landscape

To truly understand the stakes of this AI-driven transformation, we need to consider the economic realities of our industry. Let me share an example from my experience managing the band Delta Rae for ten years.

To make a very modest living, a six-person band like Delta Rae needs to sell at least a thousand tickets in 50 to 75 markets every year. 

Let's break that down:

In a city like Pittsburgh, you might sell a thousand tickets at $30 each. That's $30,000. The venue typically takes about 20%, leaving you with around $25,000. But that $25,000 doesn't go straight to the band. About 10% goes to the booking agent. 5% to the lawyer. 5% to the business manager

Then there are expenses: Lighting manager, Tour bus (which can cost around $1000 a day) Hotels, etc...

If you're doing well, you might make 30% margins on the road. Now, split what's left between the six band members and the manager. Each band member might be making $1000 or less per show. And remember, this isn't a one-time thing. You need to do it all again next year, and the year after that just to match the same annual income.

This example illustrates a fundamental truth about our industry: success requires capturing and holding audience attention over time. Now, let's dive into the decision-making process of a potential concert-goer:

There are so many decisions that go into someone buying a ticket for a band they've just started to know. The barrier to entry for even buying one ticket is significant. And for the band to get a thousand people to show up at a show, it takes millions and millions of listens to their songs in that city alone.

Now, imagine how much harder this becomes in a world where attention is increasingly divided. The more fractionalized your attention is, either through social media or anything else, the less opportunity there is for any one song to break out, for any one band to break out. And then, from an existing band's perspective, how do you grow? 

Maybe you got a thousand people to this year's show, but you have to do it again next year. This is the economic reality facing talent today. And it's a reality that AI has the potential to dramatically reshape.

AI: Accelerant of Fractionalization or Tool for Connection?

Given this landscape, how does AI fit into the picture? On one hand, AI has the potential to accelerate this dynamic. As content creation becomes easier, faster, and cheaper, we're likely to see an explosion in the volume of content available. This could further divide audience attention, making it even harder for any single piece of content - or any single star - to capture a significant share of the cultural conversation.

But here's where it gets interesting: AI also has the potential to create new forms of connection between talent and audiences. Imagine an AI system that could allow an actor to appear in multiple projects simultaneously, or to create personalized content for different audience segments. Or consider how AI could help musicians create custom experiences for fans, tailoring performances or interactions based on individual preferences.

For actors and other talent who can't easily monetize their audience directly, AI could open up new possibilities. While an actor can't go on tour like a musician, maybe AI could allow them to create language specific personalized content for fans in different countries, or to appear in multiple projects simultaneously without the physical constraints of traditional filmmaking.

This dual nature of AI - as both a potential accelerant of fractionalization and a tool for deeper connection - is at the heart of the challenge our industry faces. How do we harness its power to create value, rather than simply adding to the noise?

Reimagining the Star System and Producer Incentives

The "Everyone will always want Brad Pitt" model only makes sense when the incentives align for a lot of corporations to hire Brad Pitt - when they get more value from that star power than they're paying for. But as AI and other factors change these incentives, we need to critically examine whether this model will continue to serve us in the future.

This isn't about dismissing the value of star power or underestimating the talent of actors like Brad Pitt. It's about recognizing the seismic shifts occurring in our industry and considering how we might need to adapt.

Perhaps instead of focusing on creating a few massive stars, we need to think about building more talent from smaller, more engaged communities. Maybe the future isn't about trying to create huge blockbusters that most people aren't even seeing, but about investing in niche markets and fostering deeper connections with smaller, more dedicated audiences.

Now, let's consider the producer's perspective (i.e. studios, ad agencies) in this AI-augmented landscape. Producers with AI will increasingly have access to synthetic performers. This gives them more optionality -- options that can be generated instantly, cheaply, and without going through the time-consuming legal administration of working with unions. This further decreases the leverage of talent, particularly those outside the top stars.

Given this reality, it's essential for talent and their representatives to be at the forefront of demonstrating the value and creativity that real human performers can drive alongside the technology, rather than being replaced by it. The challenge is to show how human talent can work synergistically with AI to create experiences that are richer, more nuanced, and more compelling than what AI alone can produce.

What’s Next

As we navigate this AI-driven future, our industry must strike a careful balance between respecting human creativity and embracing technological advancements. We need to be proactive in exploring how AI can enhance, rather than replace, the human element in entertainment.

Losing power happens if we do nothing. To continue driving growth for creative businesses - whether in film, TV, music, or advertising - we must accept change and be at the forefront of testing and experimenting. We need to find the best ways of integrating our talents with AI capabilities.

This isn't just about defending what we've built - it's about creating new value and opportunities in an AI-augmented world. We need to build infrastructure to create new things, especially if there's less money in the ecosystem to spend on content. We must figure out how to create the value that artists have always created and be on the frontier of developing the next economic model.

Remember, to defend something, it must first exist. While anti-piracy measures, blockchain solutions, and content ID systems are important, they're all defensive strategies. The real challenge - and opportunity - lies in creating new things.

Artists break the mold, showing us what's possible and helping us understand ourselves. Great art makes us feel part of something greater. This is unlikely to change with AI. Instead, AI can provide artists new tools to push these boundaries even further.

We must build creative and economic incentives for artists to continue creating and for producers to continue investing in commercial art. This involves developing new business models, finding innovative ways to connect talent with audiences, and redefining what success looks like in the entertainment industry.

My professional journey from government work to band management to AI entrepreneurship has been driven by a single, unwavering belief: the transformative power of art and the importance of supporting the artists who create it. As we navigate this AI-driven future, my commitment to this belief remains stronger than ever.

I recognize that many artists today may disagree with my thoughts on AI and its potential impact on their work. Some may see it as a threat, while others might view it as an opportunity. My goal in starting this conversation isn't to dictate the future, but to foster open-mindedness and dialogue. History shows that it’s unlikely we can stop the progress of revolutionary technology.  We must defend our work but I also believe we must equallyI  commit to creating space for our collective exploration of how to harness AI in ways that support and amplify artistic expression, rather than diminish it.

"Everyone will always want Brad Pitt" may turn out to be true or not. As a response to AI disruption across all talent, not just superstars like Brad Pitt, it is not sufficient. The AI disruption of content creation is not something that's happening to us - it's a future we have the power to shape. Let's shape it in a way that honors and elevates the artists who inspire us, challenge us, and help us make sense of our world.